How to Bet On Sports > How to Bet on the NFL

“Football is a game played with arms, legs, and shoulders but mostly from the neck up”. – Knute Rockne

Betting on football isn't as simple as just picking the eventual winner of the game, you've got to consider who will win, but more importantly by how much. The point spread is considered the great equalizer in. There are several ways to bet on NFL games. When betting on the National Football League, you can wager on bet types likes the point spread, totals (also known as OVER/UNDERs), and the moneyline.

Introduction

The concept of betting on totals, or Over/Under (O/U), is quite simplistic. The bettor wagers on whether the TOTAL points scored in a game will fall over or under a pre-determined number set by the.

SportsInsights.com’s general betting articles discuss the intricacies of sports betting as it pertains to each major U.S. sport. This article will concentrate on how to bet on the NFL. We will try to utilize that “neck up” part of our bodies to gain an edge on the linesmakers, but first we must know the basics. The NFL is by far the most popular bet of all major American sports, culminating with the most popular game of the year, the Superbowl. This article will shed light on each football wager type including spread, moneyline, totals, parlays/teasers, halftimes, and futures.

Spread Betting

Like many high scoring sports, NFL wagering is dictated by the point spread. The spread, or line, is a type of side bet that equalizes the chance of winning a wager. The line offered for any given team will be accompanied with a – or + symbol to indicate whether a team is a favorite or an underdog. The example below displays the spread from the Sports Insights archives at the time of kickoff:

Generally, the number next to the spread is “-110”. This is what’s known as the juice, vig or odds. The juice is a fraction of the wager taken from the bettor if the bet wins. In this instance, a winning wager of $110 will yield a profit of $100.The example above demonstrates that, although Indianapolis won the contest, Tennessee covered the spread by losing by less than nine points. An important aspect of sports betting is capturing the best line possible. A great way to achieve this is by shopping for the best line.

Moneyline

In the parity driven NFL, the phrase “any given Sunday” is more prevalent than ever, which is why Moneyline (ML) bets can be very profitable when betting on the underdog. A moneyline wager is one that is placed on either the favorite or the underdog to win straight up. The example below is from Week 10 of the 2010-11 NFL season:

To win $100 dollars wagering on the New York Giants one must lay $600. Whereas, a $100 bet on the Dallas Cowboys earns a profit of $450. Due to the high risk and low reward presented by betting on the NY Giants, bettors may choose to fade, or go against them, and place a smaller wager on the Cowboys. The Cowboys did indeed win this Week 10 shocker at the New Meadowlands by a score of 33-20.

The Spread and Moneyline are contributing factors for Sports Insights’ Steam Moves and Smart Money Betting Systems.

Quarter and 1st Half Lines

The majority of bets on any sport are usually on the final outcome of the particular contest. However, for sports like the NFL and NBA, there are 1st quarter and 1st half lines offered as well. The quarter spread is used to determine who will be the winner at the end of the 1st quarter. The same is true for a 1st half line, only the wager ends when the first two quarters are completed. Generally, the 1st half spread will be close to half of the overall spread on the game.

Halftime Lines

There are also in-game bets being placed DURING halftime, to determine the outcome of the second half, known as the halftime, or 2nd half, line. The 2nd half line accounts for what happened in the first half to help determine how the rest of the game will play out.

For the purposes of a halftime bet, the game essentially restarts at 0 to 0. According to the halftime spread, the Arizona Cardinals are expected to be outscored by the St. Louis Rams by 3 points throughout the entire 2nd half. A halftime bet of $110 dollars on the Arizona Cardinals would lead to a profit of $100, because, not only did the Cardinals beat the spread, they won the game outright. These bets are taken during halftime, leaving a small window for the bets to be placed. You can track halftime odds easily using our Sportsbook Insider live odds software.

Totals or Over/Under

The concept of betting on totals, or Over/Under (O/U), is quite simplistic. The bettor wagers on whether the TOTAL points scored in a game will fall over or under a pre-determined number set by the sportsbook. Much like the point spread, game totals can be swayed by public opinion. The example below, from the SI Archive, shows the opening totals line for Superbowl XLV:

As you can see above, the combined score for Superbowl XLV was 56, and since this line was offered at reduced juice, a wager on the over at 44.5 of only $105 would yield a profit of $100. This line closed at a high of 46 points at some books, demonstrating how the public, who tend to show a proclivity for high scoring games, can increase an O/U line.

Parlays/Teasers

Parlays are wagers placed in combination with the spread, moneyline, and totals to increase the payout. A parlay is only a winner when ALL individual plays hit. A teaser is the same as parlay, except you put points down in your favor to help the bet come to fruition. For example, if the proposed line is -13 and you have a 6-point teaser, your new line is -7. A teaser may have reduced some of the risks of the parlay, but you still have to hit each individual play and the payout is reduced significantly. Many sportsbooks let you bet up to 15 times for one parlay, and if all wagers are at -110, that’s a payout of 16,306.94/1!

Futures

Futures bets are exactly what they sound like, a wager placed on an event that will occur in the future. As you can imagine, the most popular futures bet in the NFL is who will win the Superbowl. In fact, the Team Odds to win it all are released within a week after the previous year’s championship. It is not uncommon to see last year’s worse team to be 100/1 dogs or worse. Naturally, Futures are not limited to simply who will win the big game. Much like proposition (prop) bets for any particular contest, you can place several futures bets on potential outcomes, from who will win what division to who will win the league’s MVP. Futures Odds can be found at nearly any reputable sportsbook, but some have a limited selection of wagers they will actually take.

If you’re new to football betting and looking to learn all the different types of wagers available to you and how they work, you’ve come to the right place! If you’re already familiar with how betting on games works and are just looking for the best places to bet online, check out our best betting sites page, where you’ll find everything from 100% sign-up bonuses, live betting and discounted odds. Got questions? Email predictem@gmail.com! We’re happy to help!

The Point Spread

The most popular football bet is the point spread (aka: line, straight bets, side). In most cases, one team is likely to be favored over another. There are many reasons for this, with the main reason being one team is viewed as better than their opponent. Oddsmakers differentiate the two by creating a point spread. At first glance, it can be very confusing. Here’s an example of what you may see at a sportsbook and how to understand it:

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 -110

San Francisco 49ers +1.5 -110

The road team is always listed first. The home team is always listed second (on the bottom). The team with the minus sign (-) next to their name is the favorite. The team with the plus sign (+) is the underdog in the matchup. In the case above, KC is favored as a -1.5 fav over the Niners.

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The easiest way to explain how the NFL point spread works is to take the final score of the game and subtract -1.5 if you took the Chiefs or add +1.5 if you took SF. Let’s use Super Bowl LIIV (54) as an example;

The final score of the game was Chiefs 31 - 49ers 20. Using the example above, if you bet on the Chiefs, you would subtract -1.5 from their score. This would give them a score of 29.5. For betting purposes, the score of this game would be KC 29.5 - SF 20. Your Chiefs’ bet would be a winner.

If you bet on San Fran, you would add +1.5 to their score. For wagering purposes, your final score would be KC 31 - SF 21.5. Your SF bet would be a loser.

Note: You only add or subtract points to or from the team you have placed a wager on.

Now let’s use an example of a game with a line (spread) where one team won the game straight up but lost against the spread:

Green Bay Packers +4.5

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Dallas Cowboys -4.5

Let’s say you gambled on the Cowboys, and they won the game 24-20. You would then subtract -4.5 from their score, giving them a new score of 19.5. With GB scoring 20, your bet on Dal is a loss by a half-point, 20-19.5.

On the flip side, if you had placed a wager on the Pack, you would add +4.5 to their final score, which would make them a 24.5-20 winner.

Lastly, the -110 you see next to each team is the vigorish (aka: Juice) the bookie charges. Bookmakers charge a commission. That’s how they make their money. In a perfect world, the “vig” would be listed as $1.10 because it would be much easier to understand! The easiest way to explain the -110 is that you have to lay/risk $1.10 for every $1.00 you’re trying to profit. Another way to put it is you have to risk $110 for every $100 you’re trying to win.

It should be noted that if you win your bet, you get your full staked amount back in addition to your winnings. It should also be noted that while -110 odds is the sports betting industry standard, there are a few betting sites that operate similar to Walmart, offering their product at a steep discount (-105 odds). When penciled out, betting on games at reduced juice blows away any sign-up bonus you can get. What it boils down to is you’re saving $5 for every $100 you’re trying to win. A $100 bettor may play ten games in a weekend. That’s fifty dollars in savings! Now multiply that by 52 weeks in a year. A guy would save over $2500 in risked amount! You can find this great offer at 5Dimes Sportsbook. When you register, you’ll be asked to choose a signup bonus or reduced odds. It’s a no brainer to roll with the discounted odds option.

For those inquisitive about the Bookmaker end of the deal, in his perfect world, you would bet the Packers, and I would bet the Cowboys for the same amount. We both bet $110 to win $100. You win, get your $110 back plus your $100 win. I lose, he takes my $110. He’s essentially arbitraged the situation where he was going to get $10 off of one of us without any risk to himself.

Rotation Numbers

We often get asked what the three numbers are to the left of each team. These are called “Rotation Numbers”. The purpose of these numbers is to avoid confusion when at the sportsbook or when calling in your bets. While you know exactly what you’re looking to bet, the ticket writer doesn’t, therefore these numbers make the process easier for him to undersand. In turn, the isk of him making an error goes way down. If you say “I’d like to put $500 on the Cardinals”, he has no idea if you’re referring to the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team, Louisville Cardinals college basketball team or the Arizona Cardinals football team. He also has no clue whether you’re talking point spread, money line, first quarter bet, halftime bet or even a proposition wager. By giving the rotation number, there leaves nothing in question. Most Las Vegas Sportsbooks prefer and appreciate you using rotation numbers opposed to telling the ticket writer what you’re looking to bet. It’s simply the proper etiquette.

Moneyline Bets

A “money line bet” is a fancy word for picking the winner straight up (no point spread involved). This is a great option, especially when you consider that NFL teams aren’t playing to cover the spread for you, they’re just trying to win the game. It’s an even better proposition if you’re confident that the underdog has a strong chance of winning the game straight up, as, with this bet, you can profit more than you risk! Let’s take a look at an example of a money line wager:

New York Giants +170

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -200

Moneylines are always based on $100. If you bet the team with the (+), you’re risking a hundred dollars to win whatever the plus amount is, which in this case is $170. If you wager on the team with the minus sign, you’re risking that amount to win $100. In the example above, you’d be risking two hundred dollars to win one hundred dollars. As with any football wager, you always get your risked amount back in addition to your winnings.

For those curious about the relativity between point spreads and money lines, check out our point spread to moneyline conversion chart where we give examples on what the ML would be on point spreads from two to ten points.

Totals

Totals, also known as “Over/Under” bets, are the simplest form of betting on football. You’re simply picking whether the total combined points scored by both teams goes over or under the posted line. Let’s take a look at an example:

Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers 49.5 -110

Let’s say the Chiefs win the game 24-20. The total points scored by both teams adds up to 44. This would result in the bet being graded as a loser because it failed to go over by 5.5 points. As noted above in the point spread section, the -110 means you have to risk $1.10 for every $1.00 you’re trying to win. As usual, you get your staked amount back if you win.

Note: Sometimes, you’ll see odds like Over +100/Under -120. This is because the bookmaker is either getting heavy one-sided action and is trying to create balance or has taken a stance on the game and likes one side more than the other and is trying to lure people in so he can take a stronger position on his pick.

Tip: Most sportsbooks have much lower limits on totals than they do for spread betting. What does this tell us? The over/under bet is easier to beat! Keep this in mind when deciding which route to take during your NFL handicapping!

Parlays

A parlay is a sports bet where you pick anywhere from 2-15 teams, and each selection needs to win in order for your betting ticket to cash. The allure of parlay bets is the big payouts.

Parlay Payout Odds

If one (or more) of your football picks pushes (ties), the parlay drops down one level. If you have a 2-team parlay and get a push, the bet drops down to a straight wager.

A parlay bet can consist of point spreads, over/unders, and moneylines. Some bookies won’t allow a side and total from the same game to be parlayed. This type of bet is called a correlated parlay. If your bookmaker doesn’t allow correlated parlays, we highly recommend looking for greener pastures!

Note: For those of you with a “lottery mentality”, 5Dimes Sportsbook offers 25 team parlays!

Another type of parlay bet is a “Round Robin”. This is similar to boxing horses in horse betting. With this bet, you pick a handful of teams, and the bookie ties them all together for you in 2, 3, or 4 team combinations that cover every single combo. You don’t have to do 2,3’s and 4’s. You can choose to do just 2’s. Most sportsbooks allow you to select 3-10 teams on an NFL Sunday.

Teasers

A teaser bet is similar to a parlay in that you have to bet on two or more teams, and they all have to win in order to cash, however, with this type of wager, you get to move the line anywhere in between 5 and 20 points. Moving the point spread in the direction you choose obviously increases your chances of winning, and the odds reflect this as well. A 2-team parlay would pay 2.6 to 1 odds. A 2-team 7-point teaser has you laying -130 odds.

Here’s an example of standard teaser odds:

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Teaser Payout Odds

Sportsbooks have different rules for teaser bets, so it’s in your best interest to read the fine print before partaking in this activity. You’ll find everything from ties reducing to the next level, ties winning, and ties pushing. It really all depends on which betting website you’re using.

Pleasers

Pleaser bets should be called Kamikaze wagers because they will cause major damage to your bankroll, and you have very little chance of surviving. A pleaser is a parlay style bet where you select one or more teams, and it’s just the opposite of a teaser. Instead of moving the point spread in your favor, you’re moving it out of your favor. Example: The Kansas City Chiefs are -10. If you select them as a pick in your 7-point pleaser, you’re now laying -17. An example of an underdog pleaser pick would be the Houston Texans at +7. If you throw them into your 7-point pleaser, their spread would now be a pick’em.

The payouts for these bets are enormous. A two team seven-point pleaser bet pays 7-1 odds. A five team 7-point pleaser bet pays 180-1. I’ve been in this industry for over 20 years and have yet to meet anybody who can beat this wager consistently. It’s hard enough to pick one winner ATS in the National Football League, much less move the line against yourself and then try to pick multiple games correctly. These bets are for degenerate gamblers only!

Prop Bets

Short for “proposition bets”, (aka: Exotic Bets) these are wagers on outcomes not associated with the point spread, total, or money line. This type of wager can be (but not limited to):

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• Quarterback to throw for the most yards
• QB to throw for the longest touchdown
• Running Back to rush for the most yardage
• RB to go over or under a certain amount of yards
• Wide Receiver to catch the longest reception
• WR to score the longest TD
• Tight End to have the most receiving yards
• Kicker to boot the longest field goal
• Team to have the most first downs
• Will an AFC or NFC team win the Super Bowl
• Coin Toss

These are just a handful of examples of thousands of different types of proposition wagers. Often, you’ll see a huge menu of “props” offered for high profile football games such as the Super Bowl, Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

Tip: These bets have very low limits because they’re easier to beat. However, always beware of something that looks too good to be true. Many sucker bets are likely to be on the card. I once lost a prop bet for most points scored between backup NBA point guard Howard Eisley and NBA All-Star Charles Barkley. Somebody knew something, and it wasn’t me!

Futures Wagers

As the name implies, “Futures” are bets that are pending for an extended period of time in the future. Examples of futures bets: Team to win division, conference championship, division winner, rookie of the year, and player to be taken first in the NFL draft. You can even bet on which two teams will meet in the Super Bowl. The most popular football futures bet is “Team to win the Super Bowl”.

The great thing about futures bets is that they offer huge payouts, they’re fun, and you can have something to root for long term for as little as fifty cents.

Buying Points

Many online sportsbooks will allow you to “buy points” on a single wager. Most Vegas books will let you buy up to two points. This generally costs around 10 cents per half point, with the exception of moving the number on or off the 3, which is more expensive. Some sportsbooks like 5Dimes let you buy a ton of points. As I write this, I’m looking at a KC Chiefs Week 1 spread where they’re laying 11 points, and you can buy them to +4 for -2222 odds. Before considering such a proposition, keep in mind that if you lose a bet like this, you have to win 22.2 times in a row just to break even. I know some grinders who have tried to game this system, and all of them busted out.

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A good time to buy points is when you feel like you have an edge against the house (your information is better than theirs), and you’re in a position where you can be on the right side of a key number (common final score margin).

Another good time to buy points (although it’s costly and may not be sustainable long term) is to buy off the 3. With such a high percentage of football final score margins landing on 3, a sharp bettor/wiseguy can oftentimes gain an advantage.

How NOT to Bet on Football

Many square football bettors will advocate for the Martingale System, going as far as calling it a “sure thing”. The Martingale Betting System is a fancy name for “doubling up after you lose.” The problem with this is that you will eventually hit a losing streak and bust out. The system may seem reliable because you’ll more than likely pile up a bunch of wins; however, a losing streak is inevitable at some point. When it comes to the NFL, the Martingale System is a muffed punt, fumble and interception all tied up in one. This style of betting is that monster under your bed when you were a kid and will bankrupt you.

NFL betting is TOUGH. Try to stick to just picking one single game. Take it from a professional football gambler who failed at everything for the first ten years and gained wisdom from the process.

More advice: It may be tempting to unload on a game, but you should never put more than 10% of your bankroll on any single game. Never have more than 20% of your bankroll in play on any given day. Highs and lows are going to happen. Proper bankroll management is essential if you want to beat the bookie.

Where to Bet

MyBookie: Deposit $100 to $300 and receive a 100% REAL CASH bonus! You must use bonus/promo code PREDICT100 on the registration page.

Bovada: Get a 50% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500. Example: Deposit $500, and they’ll add an extra $250! Awesome live betting platform! Fast Bitcoin payouts!

Betnow: Giant 50% bonus up to $1000 in free bets!

BetAnySports: Bet on games at -105 instead of -110! 25 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Massive amount of betting lines! Tons of prop bets!

In Closing

It’s mind blowing how many people ask us how point spreads work and within a week think it’s easy and they’re going to get rich. Posh sportsbooks weren’t built on winners and bookies drive Cadillacs for a reason. While it helps to be a fan and know a lot about the game, the fact is 98% of people lose at NFL betting. There’s much more to it than thinking one team is better than the other. You have to take offensive lines into account, defensive lines, secondaries, player speed ratings, injuries, coaching styles, weather, key numbers and a whole bunch of other variables into account if you plan on winning long term. Most can’t do this because they have 9-5 jobs and families. Football handicapping is more than a full time job. If you find that you’re not able to win on your own, check out our free picks page or our affordable expert picks prescription service. We do this full time and know what we’re doing.

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