Nba Moneyline
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- Point Spread: Commonly called the line or spread, it is the number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that they feel will get an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the favorite. The negative value (-10.5) means the team is favored by 10.5 points. The positive value (+10.5) indicates an underdog of 10.5 points. In this instance, the favored team must win by at least 11 points to cover the spread. The underdog team can lose by 10 points and still cover the spread.
- Total: Known as the over/under, common wisdom says it is how many points oddsmakers feel will be scored in an NBA game by both teams combined. If you wagered under 197.5, you want the combined score of both teams to less than 197 (example 100-96).
Get the latest NBA odds, point spreads, money lines and over/unders for popular sportsbooks and view SportsLine's expert analysis of each upcoming game.
- Money Line: Commonly used as a baseball and hockey wagering tool, basketball moneylines are popular for picking underdogs. There is no point spread linked to the moneyline. So the team you bet on only has to win the game, not win by a certain number of points. The negative value indicates the favorite, just like a point spread (-170) and the positive value means an underdog (+150). If you picture the number 100 sitting in the middle of these two values, moneylines are easier to comprehend.
- One of the best features on the NBA Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use.
- NBA moneyline betting is simple: choose the winner and get rewarded. It's easy for sports bettors to get confused about the fractions and decimals they might see on their sports betting boards, so we're here to set the record straight with our 4-minute guide on how to read the moneyline! In a matter of minutes.
- NBA Money Line betting is the simplest and a popular form of NBA betting. With NBA money line betting you are simply picking which team will outright win the game. NBA Money Line odds will list the the favorite in a given game as a negative number (ie.200) that means you will have to bet that amount to win $100. Money line odds list the underdog as a positive number (i.e. +500) that means you will win.
- Money Line: Commonly used as a baseball and hockey wagering tool, basketball moneylines are popular for picking underdogs. There is no point spread linked to the moneyline. There is no point.
- Futures: Betting on a future event (such as which team will win the NBA title) is called future betting. Oddsmakers will update future odds during the year, shortening the odds for good teams on hot streaks and lengthening odds for slumping teams with injury problems. Example: the NBA top team could be +170 to win the championship. This translates to a $100 wager paying out a $170 profit if that team wins. A lousy team might be +2000, making a $100 wager pay out a whopping $2,000 as a longshot.
For the uninitiated, betting on the money line simply means betting on which team you think will win the game. The money line is adjusted based on the spread to help books mitigate risk.
For example, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money line of around -184. This means you would need to wager $184 to win $100 if you bet on that team to win.
For underdogs it works a bit differently. A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright.
Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines
Nba Moneyline Picks
What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable. I went back over the results of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. I wanted to see if it’s worth taking at any different spreads.
The chart below shows what the money line for NBA games at each spread should be based on the results of over 28,000 NBA games. It is important to note that these are the fair market values for each money line. Sportsbooks don’t offer fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). This way we can use the data to identify potential opportunities to take the money line when it is not properly priced. Since we have taken their built in edge out of each probability, we can feel confident that we are getting real value if the money line posted at our book is better than the price in the chart.
The more common the spread, the more accurate the expected win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off considering those with a sample size of 500 or more games.
Point Spread to Expected Win % & Money Line
The table below shows this information in more detail, including how often the favorite and underdog win outright at a given spread, then converting it to a win percentage and using that probability to create a true money line value. Books aren’t stupid, so it’s not common to find value on a regular basis across the board, however, there are some books that are not as sharp as others, or that must compensate for public action on one side and are forced to over adjust one way or the other. This are the situations that are best suited to use this data.
LineGamesWinsLossesFav Win %Dog Win %Fav MLDog ML-1110554256349.05%50.95%+104-104-1.5105054450651.81%48.19%-108+108-2151583268354.92%45.08%-122+122-2.5147888159759.61%40.39%-148+148-3167196071157.45%42.55%-135+135-3.5157296760561.51%38.49%-160+160-4160698562161.33%38.67%-159+159-4.51632105258064.46%35.54%-181+181-51617106055765.55%34.45%-190+190-5.51483100647767.84%32.16%-211+211-61514108343171.53%28.47%-251+251-6.5139599639971.40%28.60%-250+250-71379102835174.55%25.45%-293+293-7.5118188629575.02%24.98%-300+300-8114089824278.77%21.23%-371+371-8.5100079220879.20%20.80%-381+381-999081317782.12%17.88%-459+459-9.577563514081.94%18.06%-454+454-1075764411385.07%14.93%-570+570-10.56235467787.64%12.36%-709+709-115785037587.02%12.98%-671+671-11.54654085787.74%12.26%-716+716-124403875387.95%12.05%-730+730-12.53353072891.64%8.36%-1096+1096-133583203889.39%10.61%-842+842-13.52432281593.83%6.17%-1520+1520-142592411893.05%6.95%-1339+1339-14.5157152596.82%3.18%-3040+3040-15137130794.89%5.11%-1857+1857-15.5107102595.33%4.67%-2040+2040Nba Moneyline Picks
Spread to Moneyline Conversion
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