How Do Oddsmakers Make Odds
Vegas Odds are often the most common way to bet on all the biggest sporting occasions throughout the year. Whether it be the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby or the NBA Finals, you will always find the odds for the latest action. However, gamblers are often left questioning whether they should trust the odds that are shown on these markets as a guaranteed outcome. Does that mean that Vegas Odds are accurate when it comes to all of the major sports?
Generally speaking, the goal of the oddsmakers, also known as bookmakers, is to set a line that garners balanced 50/50 money on both sides. This way they can limit their risk and mitigate their liability. Once a line is released, the limits are low. Limits are the amount of money the sportsbooks will accept on a given wager. The point spread. The “great equalizer.” Just how do sportsbooks come up with this all-important number? Most of the time, oddsmakers try to come up with a point spread that creates the least risk for the sportsbook and effectively guarantees a profit.
How Vegas Odds Are Determined
- Dec 16, 2020 Oddsmakers like Trump’s chances of accepting a news network deal to be a contributor or host (Yes -220, No +165). As for launching his very own news media outlet, those odds are more mixed (Yes.
- It’s said that morning-line oddsmakers are reluctant to make a favorite lower than 8-to-5 on their line or a longshot higher than 30-to-1, since odds at the extreme ends can discourage action. This may or may not be true, but it is rare to see a horse on the morning line listed at greater odds than 50-to-1, for whatever reason.
- They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150. That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit.
Many gamblers are often amazed at how often Vegas Odds can be, as it is very rare that the odds that point to a clear favourite in the Money Line or Spread are wrong. The oddsmakers often look to industry experts to help them ensure that the best lines are offered, which gives them the best chance of success.
That means that games with a -7 line in the NBA very often see the favoured team by eight points. How this works is by asking a vast number of experts their opinions, before then setting the line at the average number from the answers that the experts have predicted. The Money Line markets are typically the most accurate as these see experts picking between two teams.
This is the especially the case when it comes to sports such as soccer, basketball and American Football. For example, if the Los Angeles Lakers are playing against the Charlotte Hornets, then it is clear that the form, history and head to head record would all indicate a win for the Lakers. That will be shown in the odds that will make the Lakers the clear favourites, which means that there will be no great surprise when the Lakers win the match. However, it isn’t the case for all sports.
More Difficult Sports To Predict
The Money Line for betting on major competitions such as the NBA, NFL and NHL will be accurate more often than not. However, that isn’t the case for all sports. Two of the most valuable sports, according to the odds are horse racing and golf. The biggest reason for this is there are much bigger fields, which means that finding a selection that all experts agree on is much more difficult. Of course, there are still times when the Vegas Odds are correct, as they had Tiz The Law as the -125 favourite to win the Belmont Stakes.
However, they have also been wrong in the past, with Authentic being valued at +450 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Golf is typically a sport where there is great value in the Vegas Odds, with a recent example being Tiger Woods. He was valued at +1600 to win the Masters in 2019, which led to one gambler from Wisconsin winning $1.2 million on the selection.
Five Times Outside Vegas Odds Selections Have Won
The accuracy of odds is something to behold, as Vegas odds are typically very accurate. However, there have been examples in the past that show gamblers shouldn’t always side with the selections that are at the top of the betting in the Vegas Odds markets. These are five examples of the odds being upset:
- Mine That Bird wins the Kentucky Derby at +5000
- Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson at +4200
- Leicester City winning the Premier League at +500000
- St Louis Cardinals winning the World Series at +99900
- Greece winning the European Championships at +8000
Vegas Odds are often the most common way to bet on all the biggest sporting occasions throughout the year. Whether it be the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby or the NBA Finals, you will always find the odds for the latest action. However, gamblers are often left questioning whether they should trust the odds that are shown on these markets as a guaranteed outcome. Does that mean that Vegas Odds are accurate when it comes to all of the major sports?
How Vegas Odds Are Determined
Many gamblers are often amazed at how often Vegas Odds can be, as it is very rare that the odds that point to a clear favourite in the Money Line or Spread are wrong. The oddsmakers often look to industry experts to help them ensure that the best lines are offered, which gives them the best chance of success.
That means that games with a -7 line in the NBA very often see the favoured team by eight points. How this works is by asking a vast number of experts their opinions, before then setting the line at the average number from the answers that the experts have predicted. The Money Line markets are typically the most accurate as these see experts picking between two teams.
This is the especially the case when it comes to sports such as soccer, basketball and American Football. For example, if the Los Angeles Lakers are playing against the Charlotte Hornets, then it is clear that the form, history and head to head record would all indicate a win for the Lakers. That will be shown in the odds that will make the Lakers the clear favourites, which means that there will be no great surprise when the Lakers win the match. However, it isn’t the case for all sports.
More Difficult Sports To Predict
The Money Line for betting on major competitions such as the NBA, NFL and NHL will be accurate more often than not. However, that isn’t the case for all sports. Two of the most valuable sports, according to the odds are horse racing and golf. The biggest reason for this is there are much bigger fields, which means that finding a selection that all experts agree on is much more difficult. Of course, there are still times when the Vegas Odds are correct, as they had Tiz The Law as the -125 favourite to win the Belmont Stakes.
However, they have also been wrong in the past, with Authentic being valued at +450 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Golf is typically a sport where there is great value in the Vegas Odds, with a recent example being Tiger Woods. He was valued at +1600 to win the Masters in 2019, which led to one gambler from Wisconsin winning $1.2 million on the selection.
Five Times Outside Vegas Odds Selections Have Won
The accuracy of odds is something to behold, as Vegas odds are typically very accurate. However, there have been examples in the past that show gamblers shouldn’t always side with the selections that are at the top of the betting in the Vegas Odds markets. These are five examples of the odds being upset:
How Do Oddsmakers Make Odds Against
- Mine That Bird wins the Kentucky Derby at +5000
- Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson at +4200
- Leicester City winning the Premier League at +500000
- St Louis Cardinals winning the World Series at +99900
- Greece winning the European Championships at +8000