The 2020 fantasy baseball season, or lack thereof, shows its negative effects on the quick approaching 2021 season. Under normal circumstances, you start evaluating players at some point during the off-season based on their performance from the previous season. 2020, however, has muddied that process. We do not have as much information as we usually do to evaluate players due to small sample sizes because of the shortened season and players missing time to COVID-19 and injuries. But if you want to improve your chances of having a successful 2021 fantasy baseball campaign, you must find a way to get past this. One way to do this is to identify players that you think are going lower than their value in drafts and then make sure you take them earlier than anyone else.

• Top Mlb Fantasy Sleepers
• Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Cheat
• Mlb Fantasy Sleeper Pitchers
• Sleeper Mlb Fantasy Picks
• 2020 Mlb Fantasy Sleepers

Get ready for your fantasy baseball draft with scouting reports on the top rookies at this key position. Top MLB Prospects: Shortstop sleepers for the 2018 fantasy baseball season Sporting News. 2018 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Sleepers and Busts Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo (58) throws during a bullpen session at the Cincinnati Reds Spring Training facility. Godley is one of the best starting pitcher sleepers in fantasy baseball in 2018 despite pitching half of his starts at Chase Field. The soon-to-be 28-year old won just eight games last year in 25. 2018 minors: 7-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 126 1/3 IP, 60 BB, 170 K. So which 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a. Top 2021 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 10. Frankie Montas, SP, Oakland Athletics.

Brandon Lowe, 2B/RF, TB

138 games, 489 ABs, 78 runs, 26 doubles, 4 triples, 31 Homeruns, and 8 stolen bases. Brandon’s combines numbers in a half-season of the big leagues in 2019 and a shortened 2020. His underlying numbers put him in the top percentile going by just about any Statcast number except for his strikeout and walk rate. Both of which improved in 2020. I am going to keep this one short and direct you to his Statcast page, and you can decide for yourself- https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-lowe-664040?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

As for me, I do see risk, but I also see a high reward, and I am taking him well above his ADP rank of 64; he is in the top 40.

Yordan Alvarez, UT, HOU

Knees! He has no knees! He only has one good knee! Insert your overreactive knee joke here. Ok, there is the negative for Yordan. Now, the positives. In 2019 he hit 27 home runs, had 78 RBI’s over 87 games while maintaining a .313 BA and .412 OBP. At Triple-A in 2019, he had 23 HRs, 71 RBIs, a .343 BA, and .443 OBP. The underlying numbers backed this up. In 2019, he was in the 90 plus percentile in several Statcast batting categories, most noticeably a 17.2 percent barrel rate and 96.5 exit velocity FB/LD. Back to the knees. I think people are overreacting. I may have to eat my words, but I am disregarding the knee issue. Reports are that he is recovering well. He should also spend more time at designated hitter, giving his knees a rest. This is a potential 50 HR, .300 BA, and .400 OBP hitter. He is being drafted way too low at a Fantrax ADP rank of 77. He should have LF eligibility in 2020, and even if he turns into a DH eligible only player in the future, if he puts up those numbers, he belongs in the Top 10. I also do not see a lot of good options around him at OF in ADP. At worst, I will start looking at him after OF’s Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez, who are at 38 and 39. I will not draft him any lower than 50, and I may jump up more and more on that if I am worried someone else is going to grab him first.

Brad Keller, SP, KC

Keller does not get a lot of attention in fantasy due to his lack of strikeouts and a supply of other popular name young pitchers in Kansas City. But I think these two shadows are hiding another young pitcher with more time in the majors and has shown continued signs of improvement. In 2020 he had 35 strikeouts, a 1.024 WHIP, and a 2.47 ERA over 54.2 innings. On the negative side, his average fastball velocity dropped for the second straight year from 93.7 to 92.8 (94.3 in 2018). However, what is overlooked is that his fastball spin rate increased by about 50 rpm. He has also slowly increased the use of his slider from year to year. In 2020 he started using it a lot more, 38.2 percent compared to 31.4 in 2019. A pitch that averaged the 10th most vertical movement among qualified pitchers. Opposing batter’s BA has also decreased from year to year on that pitch, just .187 in 2020. The most impressive 2020 stat is his barrels per batted ball event percentage of 3.7, 5th lowest in MLB. His barrel percentage has ranked in the 70th percentile or better in each of his 3 big league seasons. I am not trying to sell Keller as an overlooked ace or even a pitcher that will ever crack the top 100, but he should be higher than his ADP rank of 274. He will not get you many K’s, but he does produce a decent amount, and he contributes positively to the other pitching categories. I look at the Fantrax ADP rankings, and I see at least 10 starting pitchers above him that I would take Keller in front of for various reasons. I would draft him no lower than somewhere around the 250 range.

Cody Bellinger, 1B/CF, LAD

Some may view Bellinger as too high up in the rankings to consider a sleeper, but I still think he is going too low. He had a somewhat disappointing 2020 statistical season and a minor celebration injury, which has caused many to drop him in their rankings. But I think he is a prime example of one of the key things I will focus on this season. He will be just 25 going into the 2021 season. He is still learning, developing, and adjusting, and then a short 2021 season disrupted that process. At the age of 23 in 2019, he hit 47 home runs and managed a .406 OBP. His stats year to year stats show consistency and improvement. His barrel percentage of 13 ranked in the top 10 percent in 2019. I see no indications of Bellinger not maintaining a 40 HR, 15 SB with a high OBP profile for years to come. He ranks 14th in Fantrax ADP. On my draft board, he is in discussion with the top 5 batters that are being taken.

Jo Adell, RF, LAA

He had a terrible debut in 2020. It is hard to determine much from his underlying numbers due to the small sample size, other than the encouraging 93.2 exit velocity FB/LD and 29.3 ft/s, showing his potential power and speed. I am considering a young player considered a .280 BA, 40 HR, 20 SB potential top prospect for the past few years. Under normal circumstances, he would have spent 2020 in Triple-A, continuing to develop. Instead, he was thrown into a short MLB season before he was ready. He struggled, not a surprise. That does not take away from the potential he had before 2020. He has a Fantrax ADP rank of 209. I will take the chance and take him a couple of rounds earlier in hopes that he broke out in 2020. In a dynasty, you hold onto him or try to get him from an overreactive owner.

Jorge Soler, RF, KC

Soler is another player that has taken a fall in ADP due to a disappointing 2020. He managed just 8 home runs with a .236 average. This has made it too easy to write off his 48 home run, 117 RBI, .265 BA, and .354 OBP 2019 season as a fluke. His strikeout rate also went up 8 percent to a concerning 34.5. But there are reasons to make an argument for 2019 not being a fluke. First, he struggled with an oblique injury most of the 2019 season. An oblique injury added to a shortened season can make it hard for one to work out their swing. This could explain the increase in strikeouts. More importantly, the underlying numbers show that power was the same. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage remained in the 90th percentile plus for the 2nd year in a row. He improved his barrel percentage from 16.9 to 18.9. 3rd highest behind Miquel Sano and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Pretty good company. The Royals also added Carlos Santana to their roster, potentially positioning Soler in the cleanup spot between two other decent power bats, Santana and Salvador Perez. Soler may be an overlooked top power hitter, and I will take him well above his 136 ADP rank. I can easily justify taking Soler in the top 100 with the potential reward of a Top 50 or better bat.

Evan White, 1B, SEA

White was a popular late-round pick last year as a potential first-year breakout. He was disappointed in the short season with just a .176 BA and 8 home runs in 54 games. If this happened to a player in his first year through his first 54 games, it would be wise to ask if this is a player that cannot make the transition to the big leagues or is there something that can be looked at to show that he will break through these numbers. He spent the entire 2019 season in AA, where he had 18 home runs, a .293 BA, and a .350 OBP. Skipping AAA and then coming up in a shortened season are pretty good excuses for White getting off to a slow start with his bat. His OBP has never been under .333 in any of his college or minor league seasons, apart from a short 4 game stint in 2018 at AAA. So, I do not think his struggles in AVG and OBP will continue. His underlying numbers show encouraging signs that he will translate his power into the big leagues as well. His barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in 2020, and his 96.9 exit velocity FB/LD ranked 12th. He may break out big in 2021, but he should continue to improve enough on his numbers to be better than his ADP rank of 308. For me, his potential to be a 30-homerun batter with .350 OBP puts him up in the 250 range at least.

Jordan Hicks, RP, STL

I will keep this one short and get to the point. His Fantrax ADP rank is 299, and as of now, he is expected to be the Cardinal’s closer. He had a 3.14 ERA, .94 WHIP, and 31 K’s over 28.2 innings in 2019. He converted 14 out of 15 save opportunities before going down with a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He opted out of 2020. It will be important to monitor his progress and expected role, but if he is on track to be the closer, he will be a steal even if you must move up a couple of rounds from his current ADP of 299.

Justus Sheffield, SP, SEA

This is a risky one, but some of his numbers are hard to ignore, and he made a big change in his pitch selection, which led to some pretty good results in 2020. He basically replaced his fastball that he struggled to control with a sinker. This shows me a pitcher that is willing to make changes to succeed. The underlying number that really sticks out to me is his barrel percentage, 3.7 in 2020, 4th best among qualified pitchers. His pitches show movement that ranked in the upper percentiles. He has walk issues going back to the minors, but he continues to improve that, down to 8.6 percent in 2020. He had 48 K’s, a 1.301 WHIP, and 3.58 ERA. Even more encouraging is that those stats improved as the season progressed. His current ADP rank is 248. He is young and still improving, it is not a given that he will succeed in 2021, but I will risk drafting him 20 to 30 spots higher just considering the potential and the changes he made in 2020. In dynasty formats, I am trying to get as many shares as I can.

Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU

For my final sleeper, I will go with a player that I am a little reluctant about. But the reason for my reluctance is the same reason why he is being taken so low. Any Houston hitters that struggled in the short 2020 season have been quickly written off a lack of cheating. This may have some truth to it, but I am not writing off Bregman that easily. Bregman hit just 6 home runs in 42 games in 2020, making him an easy target for the Cheating Astro tag. But he also had 12 doubles, and while his strike percentage was up slightly and his walk percentage down slightly, he still stuck out 26 times compared to 24 walks. He had more walks than strikeouts in the previous two seasons. I think a lot of people write him off because his underlying numbers do not look good either. His barrel rate percentage, hard-hit percentage, and exit velocity dropped for the 3rd year in a row. But he keeps hitting home runs, he keeps putting up a high OBP, and he walks more than he strikeouts. Underlying stats aside, I do not think you can overlook a player that repeatedly shows that he has good eye contact. And you cannot pick out very many batters that maintain an even walk to strikeout ratio season after season and consistently put up high home run totals. Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez are two that come to mind. Until Bregman has a full season of disappointing numbers, he will remain a Top 10 potential player for me. I can justify the reward of his potential above the risk of his success being entirely due to cheating and luck. His ADP rank is 29. He is the 2nd highest ranked third baseman in my rankings and easily Tops 20 overall.

The Statcast era is upon us in Fantasy Baseball and while barrels are the trendy thing to look at when assessing offensive talent, the prevention of barrels is just as important.

Sure, many names towards the top of that particular ranking are not suited for a Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep article — you don’t really need me to layout the reasons why Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, and James Paxton are good.

However, there’s no shortage of intriguing starting pitching options either. In fact, if you caught me in a mood in which I’d yearn to promote this article’s SEO value, I might dare call those options “starting pitcher sleepers.”

3 Great Late-Round Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Here are a few late-round pitchers who sat among the league-leaders in lowest Brls/PA% (barrels missed per plate appearance), and are currently going outside the Top-200 according to early NFBC ADP.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP 216.8)

If there’s one thing I can never get enough of in Fantasy Baseball, its post-hype prospects. Blake Snell was awful to begin the 2017 season. I would say he allowed the second-most walks per nine in the year’s first-half to truly illustrate my point, but I can’t, because he didn’t nearly last long enough in the majors to have the innings to qualify.

You’d have to shorten your parameters up to 50 innings for his 5.88 BB/9 to have any bearing. Snell was also unable to pick up a win in any of those 10 outings. Again, it was pretty bleak.

Yet, by season’s end, Snell would finish with the fifth lowest Brls/PA among the 118 starters with 350-plus batted-ball events at a pristine 2.9%.

That figure likely coincided with a fantastic run following his recall. In 77.1 innings after the All-Star break, Snell pitched to a 3.49 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and he saw his K%-BB% rise from a putrid 4.7% in the first-half to 15.7%. The young lefty also saw his swinging-strike rate spike in September, posting a tantalizing 14.1% for the month — good for ninth-highest overall.

Blake Snell:
Avg Exit Velocity- 85.5
On LD/FB- 91
GB- 81.7
Brls/PA- 2.9

Strasbourg:
Avg Exit Velocity- 86.4
On LD/FB- 91.7
GB- 82.6
Brls/PA- 2.9 #FantasyBaseball

— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 30, 2018

Obviously, your Draft Day thought process on Snell will come down to your perception of his control issues. There’s a reason the old adage “the best pitch in baseball is strike one” stuck around long enough to become old – it’s true.

Snell saw his opponent’s wOBA skyrocket from .238 when starting a hitter with an 0-1 count, to .361 when the batter got the upper hand with a 1-0 count. That’s concerning when Snell’s 53.8% first-pitch strike rate was the fourth-lowest of any pitcher to throw 100-plus innings in 2017. Still, I don’t mind shooting for this kind of upside past pick 200. If you’re like me and feel incomplete because you can’t even consider taking another flyer on Carlos Rodon this year due to injury, do the next best thing and take a chance on Blake Snell.
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J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 255.7)

Remember when J.A. Happ, coming off a career revitalization in Pittsburgh, signed with the Blue Jays and won 20 games in 2016? Yeah? Well, judging by his current ADP, a lot of people don’t, or at least they’re unwilling to subscribe to the theory that he might have been better last season.

Happ’s ADP entering 2017 was just inside the Top-200 in NFBC draft rooms. People were rightfully tepid to trust that another magical 20-win year was on the horizon for the then 34-year-old and, technically, they were proven correct. Injuries held Happ to just 25 starts in 2018, however, when it was all said and done, the southpaw had a career-best groundball rate, a better FIP than the prior season, and a 26.7% opponent hard-contact rate very much backed up by a minuscule barrels per plate appearance figure of 3.0%.

Really, if you ignore his first three starts, 16 innings where he pitched to a 4.50 ERA despite a 20:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his next two starts coming off the DL, a pair of games against the Reds and A’s where he was clearly not at 100 percent, you’re left with some great numbers. Those numbers were 120 innings pitched, a 3.15 ERA, a 3.32 FIP, and just 0.8 home runs surrendered per nine innings.

It’s understandable to look at the elder statesman of Toronto’s rotation and not see incredible upside, yet I’d warn to take Happ’s floor for granted. It appears to me that the market inefficiency this season will be the value of veteran players and Happ’s current ADP situation will definitely be one to follow.

Residing in Happ’s SP tier are flashier, younger names like Patrick Corbin, Sean Manaea, and Alex Reyes — guys that I like (I really, really like Corbin), but guys that I’d also expect to see gather some helium as we get closer to late March.

You know who’s not going to all of a sudden be racing up draft boards? Boring old J.A. Happ. So grab him at pick 250 and try to avoid cackling with glee as you do.

Happy #NationalMilkDay to everyone, especially J.A. Happ! 😂 pic.twitter.com/o6kAZT7dZV

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) January 11, 2018

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres (ADP 501.2)

This one might seem a little insane, but stick with me — I’ll bring it around. Clayton Richard is not regarded by many as a Fantasy Baseball piece. In fact, I might be the only one. It’s tough when you’re not the best “Clayton” in your own division, and it’s not even close. However, Clayton Richard has an elite trait. How many other players with ADPs outside the Top-500 can make the same boast?

Richard is a groundball savant. Among the 58 pitchers to qualify in 2017, the veteran’s 59.2% groundball rate was third-best in baseball and second-best in the National League.

Not shockingly, this skill equated to Richard being among the best in barrel suppression with opposing hitters managing a barrel on just 3.3% of plate appearances — only Zach Davies had a lower rate among SP with over 600 batted-ball events last year.

Top Mlb Fantasy Sleepers

[bctt tweet=”Clayton Richard exploited the same principal that you do when taking that sweet, sweet Tinder profile selfie: it’s all about the angles.”]

The 34-year-old was one of five pitchers, among the 94 with over 400 total batters faced, to keep opponents’ average launch angle under three degrees. Considering the spectrum in which a ball can be barrelled spans from 50 degrees to eight degrees — that’s pretty important.

Fantasy Sleepers 2018 Mlb Cheat

Richard’s groundball rate also rose when specifically focusing on his results from August forward. Over a 64-inning run, Richard pitched to a 3.52 ERA (validated by a 3.70 FIP), with a 61.9% groundball rate and 20.7% strikeout rate. The latter statistic might be the most important. Richard struck out 7.88 batters per nine in the season’s final two months — not exactly a number that would blow anyone away, but a figure that’s no longer a drain on one of your pitching categories. Plus, it’s a rate that starts making Richard look very comparable to Marcus Stroman, who is currently going at pick 125.1 on average.

Mlb Fantasy Sleeper Pitchers

Whether this is more of an indictment on Stroman’s value rather than praise for Richard is a completely rational argument. Yet, the fact remains that the San Diego starter is way too undervalued heading into 2018. Richard is an innings eater in a good ballpark with a easily identifiable skill set. Even if you don’t scoop him up with your final pick, make sure to keep an eye on Clayton Richard as he inhabits the waiver wire.

Sleeper Mlb Fantasy Picks

Hopefully, you can use this list of late-round starting pitcher sleepers to help fortify your Fantasy Baseball lineups! Also, check out my article on “A Surprising Trio of 2018 Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates”!

2020 Mlb Fantasy Sleepers

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