American Odds To Implied Probability
- How To Calculate Implied Probability From Odds
- Implied Probability Formula
- American Odds To Implied Probability Calculator
- Implied Probability Gambling
The odds converter tool in this page will convert odds from any of the three main formats into the other formats.
It will also calculate the relevant implied probability too.
To use it, simply enter the odds you wish to convert in the appropriate box, and then click the “Convert Odds” button. It’s as easy as that!
Calculating Implied Probability with American Odds Implied probability refers to the likelihood of a particular outcome suggested by the odds. Figuring it out involves converting odds into a percentage, which indicates the likelihood that event will happen vs. The alternative. Understand the odds format by answering the question: Are the odds you want to convert Decimal, Traditional or American? Convert the odds to their probability.3. Convert the probability of your preferred odds format. For example, “Decimal Odds” of 3.00 is a 33.3% probability, which can then be converted into traditional odds of 2/1.
(Denominator / (denominator + numerator)) x 100 = implied probability For decimal odds, the calculation is: (1/decimal odds) x 100 = implied probability. And finally, to work out the implied probability from US odds you do the following: (Negative odds / (negative odds + 100)) x 100 = implied probability. For example, a positive American odds @ +110 would win $110 for a $100 wager. Negative American Odds: The odds indicate how much you must bet in order to make $100 profit. For example a wager on a team with American odds of -90 would win $100 on a $90 bet. Implied Probability Odds correlate to probability e.g a 2/1 bet is expected to win twice. As the American odds involve two representations, two criteria have been fixed for the probability to American odds conversion. Before proceeding with the conversion, it is important to if the probability is less than or equal to 0.5 or greater than 0.5 by dividing the value by 100.
If you came to this page specifically looking for a tool to
convert odds, then it’s likely that you already have a
fundamental understanding of what odds are and how they work in
relation to sports betting. If this is a subject that you’re not
particularly familiar with, however, then you might want to read
the following article from our beginner’s guide to sports
betting.
Odds Conversion Math
Overview of Different Odds Formats
If you live in the United States, then simply knowing the
moneyline odds will suffice, as this is the primary format used
by the limited number of gambling sites available for US
residents. Likewise, if you live in the United Kingdom, then you
only really need to know how fractional odds work. If you live
in Europe, then the decimal format is the one that will be most
important for you to understand.
With all that being said, it’s still a good idea to be
familiarized with how each format works. Many online betting
sites will allow you to choose the format that their odds are
displayed in. Please keep in mind that the conversation may
round in their favor.. For example, most US friendly sites offer
moneyline odds of -110 when betting points spreads. If you
choose to bet in the decimal format instead, then you’ll often
be given odds of 1.90. The true conversion is 1.9091 though, so
you’ll potentially lose a small percentage of your winnings if
you bet based on their conversion.
Therefore, it can be an advantage to use the primary format
offered by an online bookmaker, which is why it pays to make
sure you understand each of the different formats. We’ve
explained them all below for you.
American Odds/Moneyline Odds
Odds in this format are expressed as either a positive number
or a negative number. When they are a positive number, the
number represents how much in winnings is paid per $100 staked.
The following examples illustrate how positive moneyline odds
work.
When they are a negative number, the number represents the
amount of money that needs to be staked in order to win $100.
The following examples illustrate how negative moneyline odds
work.
Please see our article on calculating payouts from moneyline
odds for details on how to work out the potential winnings from
wagers using this format.
Decimal Odds
This is the most popular odds format outside of the United
States and is sometimes referred to as European odds. It’s a
very simple format where the odds are expressed as a single
positive number, usually to two decimal places. This number
states how much a winning bet returns (including the initial
stake) for each unit wagered. The following examples illustrate
the decimal format in practice.
Our article explaining how to calculate payouts from decimal
odds will teach you how to work out the potential returns from
wagers placed using this format.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are mostly used in the UK, but lately the
decimal format has been becoming more popular. Odds in this
format are displayed as a fraction, as the name suggests. The
first number of the fraction shows how much you can win per the
second number staked. This sounds more complicated that it
actually is and the easiest way to understand this format is
simply to look at some examples.
Please note that when the second number of the fraction is
higher than the first, it means the odds are less than even
money. This is referred to as odds on (as opposed to odds
against), and is the equivalent of when moneyline odds are a
negative number or when decimal odds are a number less than 2.
Odds Conversion Math
Our conversion tool is the easiest way to change odds between
formats but there will be times when you don’t have access to
it. When you’re at a Las Vegas sportsbook or a high street
bookmaker, you may need to be able to do these conversions in
your head. For this reason, we’ll run through the math required
to convert each format into all of the other formats.
Converting Moneyline Odds
To Decimal
The calculations required to convert from moneyline odds
changes depending on whether the odds are positive or negative.
To convert positive odds into decimal odds, the following
calculation is required.
Example: Converting +175
(+175 + 100) / 100 = 2.75
For negative odds, we ignore the minus symbol and use the
following formula.
Example: Converting -110
(110 + 100) / 110 = 1.909
To Fractional
When converting from the moneyline format into the fractional
format, the calculations again depend on whether the odds are
positive or negative. To convert positive odds, you simply
create a fraction by putting the relevant number over 100 and
then simplifying the fraction if possible.
300/100 is simplified to 3/1
To convert negative odds, you create a fraction by putting
100 over the relevant number (ignoring the negative sign).
Again, you then need to simplify the fraction if possible.
100/110 is simplified to 10/11
Converting Decimal Odds
To Moneyline
The method required to convert the decimal format over to the
moneyline format is dependent on whether the odds are greater
than 2.0 or not. We’ll look at how to convert odds of 2.0 or
less first. To start with, you have to carry out the following
calculation.
After doing this calculation, the odds are rounded and a
negative sign must be added.
100 / (1.95 – 1) = 105.25
To convert odds of greater than 2.00, you must start with the
following calculation.
To convert odds of greater than 2.00, you must start with the following calculation.
How To Calculate Implied Probability From Odds
You then add a positive sign to the result, as shown in this
example.
(2.45 – 1) x 100 = 145
Positive sign added = +145
To Fractional
The first step in converting from decimal to fractional
format is to create a fraction by using the formula.
This will often create a fraction that includes a decimal,
which isn’t a proper fraction. To overcome this, the next step
is to multiply both sides of the fraction by 100. Finally, the
fraction needs to be simplified. The following example
illustrates this better than any written explanation can.
(1.45 – 1) / 1 = 0.45/1
Multiply both sides by 100 = 45/100
Simplified = 9/20
Converting Fractional Odds
Before we get into the math involved here, you need to
understand the terms numerator and denominator. In this context,
the numerator is the first number in the fraction and the
denominator is the second number in the fraction. With odds of
2/1, for example, 2 is the numerator and 1 is the denominator.
To Moneyline
There are two methods needed for converting from the
fractional to the moneyline format. The first is for when the
numerator is greater than the denominator. The following formula
needs to be used in the beginning.
A positive sign then needs to be added to create the
moneyline odds, as per the following example.
(6 / 4) x 100 = 150
Positive sign added = +150
The second method is for when the denominator is larger than
the numerator. In these cases, the following formula needs to be
used.
Implied Probability Formula
A positive sign then needs to be added to create the correct
moneyline odds. This is illustrated in the following example.
100 / (2 / 5) = 250
Negative sign added = -250
To Decimal
Converting odds from the fractional format to the decimal
format is relatively simple and it requires just the following
formula.
(11 / 10) + 1 = 1.10
Implied Probability Explained
Implied probability in relation to sports betting is
basically the implication of the odds as it relates to the
chances of an outcome happening. We’ll cover this in more detail
shortly, but first let’s look at how to calculate it. It’s
easiest to determine implied probability from odds in the
decimal format, using the following simple formula.
What this example shows us is that the implied probability of
2.50 odds is 0.40 (or 40% if expressed as a percentage). This
means that odds of 2.50 on any possible outcome imply that the
chance of that outcome happening is roughly 40%. So if, for
example, a tennis player is at 2.50 to win an upcoming match,
the implication is that he has a 40% chance of actually winning
that match.
You can read more about implied probability in this article on probability in sports betting. The article also
covers expected value, which is a related topic that you should definitely learn about if you want to be a
successful bettor.
Understanding Vig
When looking at the odds set by bookmakers, it’s important to
recognize that implied probability is rarely an entirely
accurate reflection of the real chances of a wager winning. This
is because bookmakers always try to set the odds at levels that
are lower than they actually should be in relation to real
probability. If their view was that a soccer team had a 60%
chance of winning a match, for example, they wouldn’t offer odds
that exactly reflected that chance. Their odds would be lower,
as this is how they make money successfully.
By reducing the odds relative to the probability of an
outcome happening, bookmakers effectively charge a commission
for every wager they take. This commission is known as vig,
which is short for vigorish. It can also be referred to as the
overround or juice. It’s similar in some respects to the house
edge in casino games and it’s basically what gives the
bookmakers an advantage over their customers.
What sets the bookmakers’ advantage apart from the casinos’
advantage is that, unlike the house edge, it can be overcome. In
order to overcome it, though, you first need to understand
exactly how vig works and the effect it has in sports betting.
You should visit our page on the subject of how bookmakers make
money, as this is all about the methods that bookmakers use to
ensure they are profitable. Charging vig is one of these methods
that we explain thoroughly.
Use the tool below to convert odds between American, decimal, fractional and percentage formats.
Betting Odds Explained
American Odds – American Odds are the default odds format at most US friendly betting sites as well as Nevada sports books. Here odds are expressed as either a negative or a positive number. When positive the odds represent how much a player will profit on a successful $100.00 wager. So for example if the odds are +180 a successful $100 bet will return $280 (the $100 stake + $180.00 win). When the odds are negative they represent how much a bettor must stake to win $100. Therefore $150 staked at -150 returns $250.00 (the $150 stake + $100 win).
American Odds To Implied Probability Calculator
Decimal Odds – Decimal Odds, also referred to as European Odds, are used in most European countries and are the default option of many Asian bookies as well. This is the easiest odds format to understand as the odds represent how much a 1 unit wager returns. For example a €1 wager at odds 1.91 returns €1.91. This return includes both your stake plus profit; to calculate how much your return will be simply multiple your stake by the given odds.
Fractional Odds – Fractional Odds are used in the UK and Ireland. Here the first number is the amount to be won, and the second number is the stake. So for examples 4/1 is stake 1 to win 4, and 10/11 is stake 11 to win 10. To calculate how much a winning bet will profit, convert the fraction to a decimal and multiply it by the stake. For example 3/2=1.5, so, if wagering at 3/2 a successful bet will return 1.5 times your stake in winnings and will also return your stake.
Implied Probability – Implied Probability is how often a bet must win to average break even. This is calculated as risk/return, so for example +200 in American format (3.00 European) is risk $100 to win $200 so a winning wager returns $300 ($100 stake + $200 win). Therefore the implied probability of +200 is $100/$300= 0.3333, which is 33.33%. For this reason you should only wager at +200 if you think the probability of winning is greater than 33.33%.
Implied Probability Gambling
On the topic of odds, refer to our No-Vig Calculator for a better understanding of how betting odds work.